Understanding the conflict: Russians look increasingly south

Ten points a week to understand what is happening in Eastern Europe – and what could change in the lives of all of us.

1 – Deadly attack on Odessa confirms Russian occupation in the south

A Russian missile attack in Odessa kills 18 people, including two children. A nighttime missile attack by a Tu-22 Black Sea strategic aircraft in the Belgorod-Dniester district of Odessa region, three X-22 missiles hit an apartment building and a recreation center. 18 people, including two children, have been identified and 31 others, including four children and a pregnant woman, have been hospitalized.

However, control of the Ukrainian-controlled Snakes is crucial to control of the Black Sea, but a Russian loss may not be certain.

Russia claims control of a refinery in Lysizanssk, one of the remnants of the Donbass war. Moscow claims to have seized a refinery in Lysisansk; The last major city in the Luhansk region was not captured by Russian forces; “Four-pronged” attacks.

Ukrainian regional military chief says Russian troops lay mines in Lysychansk; These mines – nicknamed “sheets” – were extremely dangerous because “they could be planted anywhere, and any child or civilian who went out in search of humanitarian aid could step on them and die or be maimed”; Luhansk Governor Serhii Haydey said the city was “continuously” bombarded day and night.

2 – 7,000 ton grain ship ZARPOU DE BERDIANSK, Ukraine port captured by Russians

This was the first time since the capture of the city by Moscow troops. The target would be Russia’s “friendly countries”.

In Kherson, pro-Russian forces illegally occupy the territory and prepare for a referendum on integration with Russia. Kirill Stremousov, one of the leaders of the pro-Russian government in Kherson, told Reuters that a date for the referendum had not yet been chosen, but that he expected it to take place “in the next semester”.

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3 – China sees NATO’s expansion as the “cause” of war

China points out that the war is the result of NATO expansion. Beijing has argued at the UN that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine stems from NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe and has criticized NATO for having a “Cold War mentality” and accusing the G7 of “sowing division”.

Because of these positions, the cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan is deepened, representing the “Asian version of NATO”.

However, a top US official says China “did not provide economic support” for the Russian invasion

4 – UN warns 16 million Ukrainians at humanitarian risk

Almost half of the Ukrainian population is in need of humanitarian assistance – water, food, health services, shelter and protection (the actual number may be much higher). Sixteen million Ukrainians are at humanitarian risk, and 5.3 million have fled the country. Perhaps this helps explain another fact: 89% of Ukrainians reject giving up territory in exchange for a negotiated peace with Russia; 53% believe the Ukrainian military will drive the Russians out of the occupied territories (Wall Street Journal poll).

Russia uses ineffective missiles from former Soviet “stocks” in more than 50% of attacks in Ukraine; This leads to significant loss of civilian life; Russian attacks in Ukraine have doubled in the past two weeks.

5 – Putin still wants “almost all of Ukraine”.

Putin maintains his intention to control “a large part of Ukraine,” a top US Secret Service official assured: “We are in a position to look at President Putin, and we think he has the same political intentions,” Avril said. Haynes. , Director of National Intelligence and former Deputy National Security Advisor during the Obama presidency.
US agencies predict three conflict scenarios in the future. Two hypotheses on the table are the possibility of a major Russian advance or the stabilization of Ukraine’s front lines. But the alternative they often envision is a “crushing” conflict in which Russian forces make significant gains but make no progress toward Putin’s goal.

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6 – Boris Johnson warns Russian victory would be “absolutely catastrophic”.

Boris Johnson puts his finger on the spot: “Helping Ukraine is something the US has historically done and should do, and that is to promote peace, freedom and democracy; if we let Putin off the hook and let him take over large parts of a free, independent and sovereign country, what is he going to do?” … The consequences are absolutely devastating.

The position of its diplomatic chief is very similar: “It is absolutely essential that we guarantee Russia’s defeat in Ukraine”, Liz Truss points out. “My message is very strong: we must first defeat Russia, then negotiate. This is essential for the sake of European security, freedom and democracy. This is the only way to achieve lasting peace in Europe. Negotiations will bring a false peace while Russian troops remain in Ukraine and further aggression in the future. We must learn the lessons of the past, for example the failures of the Minsk Protocol, to ensure lasting peace.

7 – Johnson imposes himself on Macron

Ahead of the G7, the British prime minister warned the French president against the temptation to negotiate in Ukraine at the risk of perpetuating “global instability”.

A completely dominant record at the G7 and NATO summits reinforced the British view, much less the French view: unconditional support for Ukraine remained in effect and room for a “concession” to Putin was further reduced.

8 – The G7 wants to raise more than 550 million euros for developing countries

The G7 decided at a meeting in Germany to push forward with $600 billion through 2027 for global investments in infrastructure in response to massive projects funded by China. Regarding this investment by the G7 in the global infrastructure project, the President of the European Commission announced that Europe will go ahead with 300 billion euros.

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9 – Canada Strengthens Baltic Defense

Canada has sent two warships to the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic, joining a pair of warships already in the region in an effort to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.

The Canadian ships Kingston and Summerside will be on a four-month mission as part of “deterrence operations in Central and Eastern Europe” launched in 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Until October, the ships will take part in naval mine clearance exercises to maintain a “high level of readiness” that allows them to “respond quickly and efficiently to any NATO operations”. HMCS Halifax and Montreal are scheduled to return to port in July from Operation Reassurance — Canada’s largest overseas deployment to date.

The mission has approximately 700 Canadian soldiers in Latvia with artillery and electronic warfare capabilities and various military aircraft.

10 – “We hope that all Russian mothers feel the same way as us”

That was one of the most resonant phrases in this week’s analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Who said she was the mother of a woman who worked in a shopping center in Kremenchuk and disappeared from a criminal Russian attack with two missiles.

“We hope that all Russian mothers feel the same as we do.” It was reported by Pedro Miguel Costa and Odacir Junior.

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