Think tank predicts “severe” losses on all sides, including US, if China invades Taiwan – News

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, conducted 24 simulations of a possible invasion by China in 2026, and there is no doubt: no one will win this potential war. Report available This Monday, titled ‘The First Battle of the Next War’.

Or rather, according to the simulations, an alliance between the US, Taiwan and Japan would make it possible to defeat China in a few weeks of fighting, but with the loss of many ships, aircraft and thousands of soldiers.

“The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of military personnel. Such losses will damage America’s global standing for years to come. China has also suffered greatly. Its navy is in disarray, the core of its amphibious forces broken and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” the report said.

Faced with this situation, a CSIS consultant says he wants to recommend policies and efforts to prevent a possible invasion. “Our analysis indicates that the U.S. and Taiwan will win and cause heavy casualties, and one can imagine that the Chinese will see it differently. That’s why we recommend increasing deterrence, so we don’t get into this situation in the first place.”

Among the various simulations carried out, CSIS also carried out a ‘Taiwan alone’ without the support of the US and Japan, which ended in a quick victory for China.

These simulations draw on information and historical data for ground combat operations during an amphibious invasion, as well as predictive models of missile strikes based on the size of warships and how much area they would cover in impact.

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